Ask HN: OpenAI, SpaceX/xAI, Anthropic all to IPO, is this a sign of the peak?
Given the leaks recently that they’re all aiming for an IPO asap, is this a strong signal that their investors feel this is the peak of their valuation for the near if not indefinite future?
I understand it’s impossible to know anything for sure, least of all how the market will react regardless of the motivations of these players, but I’m curious to get some perspectives.
5 分 | 作者 virgildotcodes 11小时前
6 条评论
- wanderingpixel 5小时前Yes, the insiders want to cash out at the peak and reduce their exposure. The general public will be holding the bag here, simply because the passive investments will be forced to buy into these at huge valuations before price discovery can reasonably complete.
- quantified 9小时前SpaceX is a bit misinterpreted.
There is little chance of Mars being profitable. Every colonization (and we have a rich history of them) is "successful" if it is profitable for the backers. But unlike North America or South Africa for the Europeans, there are no resources there worth bringing back. It's a cool vanity and possibly scientific project but not an interesting business.
Renting out all the GPUs stockpiled by Musk sort of is, unless they get constrained by power, water, etc. Launching them into space may be worthwhile for the short term. That's a business that can be profitable, but not in a way that matches the cost of the equity (with Elon strings attached all over it).
Practically, if you didn't like the idea of Iran threatening cables under the Strait of Hormuz, wait until your Starlinks (and your zero-G factories producing incredibly important whatevers) are threatened by a hostile nation. For commercial applications in space to become normal, military protections in space need to become normal. Now you've bought an interesting new world.
Really, SpaceX is Musk 3.11 for Workgroups and you have however long til he expires to find out how good that is.
- ipaddr 4小时前Going to mars won't be profitable unless each ticket is billions but space offers a new arena where new materials cheaper power and a new surface exists. It's like buying in on Apple in 1979.. it goes on a big run dies and is reborn and 45 years later its worth so much in profits.
Thankfully the richest man in the world owns it and is young and hyper and crazy enough to stick it out.
- rvz 6小时前Yes it is.
Also what happens when these players cannot afford to keep offering cheap token generation?
- ipaddr 4小时前If things don't change we'll find a way to do things cheaper. If newer models cost more we'll end up with rich players using models that read minds and the poor people will have to type in what they want.
- cinntaile 10小时前Yes
- atlasprimeai 10小时前[dead]
- onetokeoverthe 1小时前[dead]